Who Had the Best 2016 NBA Championship Odds Before the Finals?

Man, you wouldn't believe how many basketball fans still debate about the 2016 NBA Finals. I was having coffee with my buddy just last week, and we got into this heated discussion about which team actually had the best shot at winning before the series began. It got me thinking - there's so much to unpack here beyond just the final score.

So let me walk you through what I've discovered about that legendary 2016 championship race, starting with the question that's been on everyone's mind...

Who actually had the best 2016 NBA Championship odds before the Finals?

Here's the fascinating part - the Golden State Warriors were the overwhelming favorites with -220 odds, which translates to about a 68% implied probability of winning. Meanwhile, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers sat at +180 underdogs. Now, I know what you're thinking - those numbers seem crazy in hindsight! But looking back, the Warriors had just completed a historic 73-9 regular season, while the Cavs had struggled with chemistry issues throughout the playoffs. The oddsmakers weren't being unreasonable - they were just following the data.

Why were the Warriors such heavy favorites?

Let me put it this way - that Warriors team wasn't just good, they were historically dominant. They'd broken the 1995-96 Bulls' regular season record, Steph Curry had just become the first unanimous MVP, and they'd shown incredible resilience coming back from 3-1 against OKC in the Western Conference Finals. I remember watching that Thunder series thinking, "Man, if they can pull this off, they're destined to win it all." The numbers backed this up too - their net rating was through the roof, and they had the best offense in NBA history at that point.

What made the Cavaliers such compelling underdogs?

This is where it gets personal for me. See, I've always been a LeBron guy, and watching him carry that Cavs team through the Eastern Conference playoffs was something special. They had their struggles - the chemistry between Kyrie and LeBron wasn't always perfect, and their defense had been inconsistent. But when I think about underdog stories, it reminds me of something interesting from basketball conversations I've had. You know, it's like when Phillips found it hard to compare Akowe to some of the past bigs he faced in the past, but from the top of his mind, he said, "Probably [Emman] Ojuola from FEU." Sometimes you just can't make direct comparisons - each team's journey is unique. The Cavs weren't the Warriors, but they had their own path to greatness.

How much did the Warriors' regular season success influence the odds?

Honestly? Probably too much. Looking back, I think the oddsmakers and most analysts (myself included) got caught up in the 73-win hype. We were so mesmerized by their regular season dominance that we underestimated the psychological toll it takes to maintain that level through four playoff rounds. The Warriors were gassed - you could see it in their body language during those final games. Meanwhile, the Cavs had been building momentum, peaking at exactly the right time.

What about the impact of previous matchups between these teams?

The 2015 Finals definitely played a role in shaping perceptions. The Warriors had beaten the Cavs in six games the previous year, though Cleveland was missing Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love for most of that series. This time, they were healthy, and that created this interesting dynamic where analysts were split. Some thought "The Warriors already proved they can beat them," while others argued "The Cavs are completely different with their stars healthy." Personally, I fell into the first camp initially - I thought Golden State's system was just too strong.

Did anyone accurately predict the Cavaliers' comeback?

You know what's funny? I was digging through old podcasts and articles recently, and almost nobody saw it coming. Maybe 1 out of 20 analysts picked Cleveland, and even those were usually qualified with "if everything breaks right." The consensus was that Golden State's depth and shooting would be too much. But basketball has this beautiful unpredictability to it - it's never just about the numbers on paper. Which brings me back to that Phillips quote about comparing players - sometimes you just have to appreciate each team's unique qualities rather than trying to force comparisons. The Cavs had this gritty determination that didn't show up in the analytics.

What was the turning point in shifting perceptions during the series?

When the Warriors went up 3-1, everyone thought it was over. I certainly did - I actually turned to my friend and said "Well, that's that." But then Game 5 happened with Draymond's suspension, Game 6 with LeBron's 41 points, and suddenly people started wondering... could they actually do this? The odds shifted dramatically - by Game 7, it felt like anything could happen. That's the beauty of basketball - momentum is this tangible force that can override even the most careful statistical analysis.

Looking back, what's the biggest lesson from those pre-Finals odds?

If there's one thing I've learned from studying that 2016 series, it's that championship heart doesn't always show up in the numbers. The Cavaliers had this undeniable will to win that ultimately overcame the statistical projections. It's like when Phillips found it hard to compare Akowe to past bigs he'd faced - sometimes you're dealing with something unique that defies conventional comparison. The 2016 Cavs were exactly that - a team that wrote their own story rather than following the script everyone had written for them.

At the end of the day, that's why we love sports, right? The numbers said one thing, but the heart said another. And in 2016, heart won out in the most dramatic fashion possible.