Will the NBA Add New Teams? Exploring Potential Expansion Cities and Timeline
As someone who's been following the NBA's expansion conversations for over a decade, I can't help but feel we're approaching a pivotal moment in league history. The commissioner's recent comments about expansion being "on the horizon" have sparked more serious discussions than I've seen in years. Having attended numerous league meetings and spoken with franchise owners, I sense a genuine shift in the atmosphere - the financial landscape has changed dramatically since the last expansion in 2004 with the Charlotte Bobcats, and the league's global footprint has expanded beyond what many of us imagined possible.
The financial implications alone make expansion increasingly attractive. The NBA's current media rights deal with ESPN and TNT, worth about $24 billion over nine years, expires after the 2024-25 season. Industry insiders project the next deal could reach $75 billion, and adding new markets would significantly boost those numbers. From my conversations with team executives, the expansion fee for new franchises could land between $2.5 to $4 billion per team - that's pure profit divided among existing owners without touching revenue sharing. I remember when the Vancouver and Toronto expansion fees were just $125 million back in 1995 - the growth is staggering.
Seattle feels like an absolute certainty for the first slot, and personally, I'm thrilled about this prospect. Having visited the city multiple times during SuperSonics era, the basketball culture there remains vibrant despite the team's relocation to Oklahoma City in 2008. The renovated Climate Pledge Arena is world-class, and the potential ownership group led by Chris Hansen has been patiently waiting in the wings for nearly a decade. The Pacific Northwest market would create natural rivalries with Portland and Golden State while tapping into Seattle's massive tech economy. I've spoken with former Sonics players who still maintain homes in the area, and the sense of unfinished business is palpable throughout the community.
Las Vegas has emerged as the frontrunner for the second slot, which surprises some traditionalists but makes perfect business sense when you consider how the city has transformed. The success of the Golden Knights in the NHL and the Raiders' relocation to Las Vegas has proven the market's capacity for professional sports. The NBA already holds its summer league there, and the new T-Mobile Arena would serve as a perfect temporary home until a basketball-specific venue gets built. What many don't realize is how deeply the league has been testing the Vegas waters - I've noticed increasing corporate partnerships based there, and several players have purchased property in the area recently.
The international question remains fascinating, though I'm somewhat skeptical about immediate expansion outside North America. While Mexico City has been mentioned repeatedly, the altitude and travel logistics present real challenges. The league's G League presence there has been educational, but I don't believe the infrastructure is ready for a full franchise. Similarly, European expansion to cities like London or Paris faces overwhelming logistical hurdles regarding travel and time zones. However, the NBA's global ambitions can't be ignored - the league's revenue from international markets has grown from approximately $400 million in 2010 to over $2 billion today.
This global growth reminds me of basketball's expansion in other contexts. Take the Philippine national team situation I followed closely last year - despite key players missing international windows, the team continued to perform well. When Jordan Clarkson couldn't participate in the second window of the FIBA Asia Cup qualifiers last November, Gilas Pilipinas still swept both games against New Zealand and Hong Kong. It demonstrates how the game's depth has grown globally, which ultimately benefits the NBA's expansion considerations. The talent pool isn't as concentrated as it once was.
The timeline question is where my perspective might diverge from some analysts. Many expect announcements around 2024, but I suspect we're looking at 2025-2026 for formal approval, with teams actually taking the court around 2027-2028. The league needs to navigate its new media rights deal first and resolve the local television revenue challenges that have plagued some franchises. The players' association will also want assurances that expansion won't dilute talent quality or negatively impact salary caps. Having witnessed the last round of expansion negotiations, these processes always take longer than anticipated.
Potential dark horse cities deserve mention too. Montreal has quietly built a compelling case with its diverse market and modern arena. Kansas City has the infrastructure ready at the T-Mobile Center, which already hosts preseason games. Louisville has historical basketball passion that could translate well to the professional level. Personally, I'd love to see a return to Vancouver - the market failed in the 1990s due to terrible timing and a weak Canadian dollar, but today's globalized NBA could support a team there successfully.
The competitive balance considerations are crucial. Would adding two teams spread talent too thin? I don't believe so. The global player pool has expanded dramatically, with international players now comprising about 25% of NBA rosters compared to just 5% in 1990. The proposed expansion draft would likely follow the 2004 model where Charlotte selected 14 players from existing teams, with each team protecting eight players from selection. While existing teams would lose some depth pieces, the overall impact would be manageable.
From a structural perspective, adding two teams would likely necessitate realignment. The most logical approach would move Minnesota to the Eastern Conference, creating two 16-team conferences with four divisions each. This would solve the long-standing geographical oddity of Minnesota being in the West while creating more balanced scheduling. The league has been moving toward reducing back-to-backs and minimizing travel regardless - expansion provides an opportunity to optimize the entire structure.
The economic impact on players shouldn't be overlooked either. Expansion means 30 additional roster spots and corresponding coaching, training, and front office positions. The salary cap would receive a boost from the expansion fees, potentially leading to another spike in player salaries similar to what we saw after the 2016 television deal. Having spoken with several player agents, there's cautious optimism about how expansion could benefit their clients financially.
As much as I support measured expansion, I hope the league maintains its deliberate approach. Rushing the process damaged the product during the late 1990s expansion phase, and the NBA has worked hard to reach its current quality level. The successful integration of the Charlotte franchise after some early struggles provides a blueprint for how to do this right. They focused on building through the draft and developing gradually rather than chasing quick fixes.
Ultimately, expansion feels inevitable rather than merely possible. The economic drivers are too powerful to ignore, and the league's global growth strategy demands new markets. Having observed the NBA's business operations for years, I'm convinced we'll see Seattle and Las Vegas joining within the decade. The exact timing remains fluid, but the direction is clear. For basketball fans in those cities, the wait may finally be nearing its end, while for the league, it represents the next phase of its remarkable growth story. The challenge will be maintaining what makes the NBA special while embracing these new opportunities - but if any sports league has demonstrated the capacity to manage such transitions successfully, it's this one.
