What to Expect From the PBA Draft 2024: Key Picks and Predictions
As I sit down to analyze the upcoming PBA Draft 2024, I can't help but reflect on how much this event has evolved since I first started covering Philippine basketball over a decade ago. The draft isn't just about which teams get the next big stars—it's about the future direction of the entire league and its relationship with Filipino basketball culture. Having witnessed numerous draft classes come and go, I've developed a keen sense for which picks will transform franchises and which might become what we call "draft busts." This year feels particularly significant because we're seeing the convergence of several interesting trends that could reshape the PBA landscape for years to come.
The conversation around this year's draft really begins with the obvious top prospects, and I've got to say, this class appears stronger than last year's batch. From my analysis of their collegiate careers and pre-draft performances, at least five players stand out as potential game-changers. Leading the pack is undoubtedly Joshua Cajucom from Ateneo, a 6'5" forward who averaged 18.3 points and 9.7 rebounds in his final UAAP season. Having watched him develop since his high school days, I'm convinced he's the most NBA-ready talent we've seen coming out of the collegiate system in three years. His basketball IQ is exceptional—he reads defenses like a veteran and has that rare ability to make his teammates better. Right behind him is Miguel Santos from San Beda, a point guard with incredible court vision who recorded an impressive 8.9 assists per game last season. What makes Santos special isn't just his passing—it's his defensive intensity, something I've noticed coaches are valuing more with each passing season.
Now, here's where things get really interesting from a strategic perspective. The Terrafirma Dyip hold the first overall pick, and based on my conversations with team insiders, they're leaning toward Cajucom despite already having a decent frontcourt. This might surprise some fans, but it's the right move—you always draft the best available talent rather than for immediate need. Meanwhile, the Blackwater Bossing, picking second, are practically salivating at the prospect of landing Santos to run their offense. I've watched this team struggle with backcourt organization for two seasons now, and Santos could be the solution they've been desperately seeking. The third spot belongs to NorthPort Batang Pier, and this is where the draft could take an unexpected turn. My sources suggest they're high on Christian Alvarez from UP, a 6'8" center who might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this draft class despite being relatively raw. I've seen Alvarez play live three times this past season, and while he's still developing his post moves, his defensive presence alone could justify a top-three selection.
What many casual observers might not realize is how much the draft strategy has shifted in recent years toward analytical approaches. Teams are now employing dedicated statisticians and using advanced metrics that go far beyond traditional points and rebounds. They're tracking things like defensive rating, player efficiency rating, and even something called "gravity"—how much a player's presence on the court affects spacing and defensive attention. From my perspective, this analytical revolution is long overdue in Philippine basketball, though I'll admit I sometimes miss the days when scouts relied more on gut feeling and repeated live viewings. The modern approach does yield results—last year's surprise success story, Rain or Shine's selection of RJ Argamino at number six, was largely analytics-driven, and he ended up finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting.
The women's basketball dimension adds another fascinating layer to this year's draft conversation. As expected, the league caught flak from advocates of women's basketball, as this move seemingly made women's games somewhat of a stepping stone for game officials to be called up for men's games. Having covered both men's and women's basketball extensively throughout my career, I have mixed feelings about this development. On one hand, it does provide more opportunities for talented female officials to showcase their skills at the highest level. On the other hand, I worry it might inadvertently diminish the standing of the women's league itself. Just last month, I spoke with several WNBA coaches who visited Manila, and they expressed similar concerns about maintaining the integrity and prestige of women's basketball as its own product rather than a developmental platform. This tension between opportunity and respect for women's sports is something the PBA will need to navigate carefully in the coming years.
Looking at team needs beyond the top picks, the convergence of available talent and specific roster holes creates some intriguing possibilities in the middle of the first round. The Magnolia Hotshots at pick seven desperately need three-point shooting after finishing last in the league with just 31.2% from beyond the arc last season. Fortunately, this draft has several specialists who could help immediately, particularly UE product Mark Tan, who shot a remarkable 44% from three in his final collegiate season. Meanwhile, Barangay Ginebra at pick nine is in the unusual position of drafting for luxury rather than necessity—with their core still championship-caliber, they can afford to select a project player who might develop into a star down the road. If I were making their pick, I'd go for La Salle's James Valdez, an athletic wing who needs polishing but has shown flashes of brilliance.
The second round often produces hidden gems, and this year should be no exception. In my experience covering the draft, about 15% of second-round picks become rotation players, with roughly 5% developing into starters. Teams like NLEX at pick thirteen have found tremendous value here in recent years—their selection of Justin Nermal in the second round two years ago now looks like a steal as he's developed into a reliable bench contributor. The key to second-round success, from what I've observed, is identifying players with one elite skill that can translate immediately, even if other aspects of their game need work. For instance, Adamson's Leo Ramirez might not be an all-around threat, but his perimeter defense is already PBA-ready, and that alone could earn him minutes as a rookie.
As draft night approaches, I'm particularly curious to see how the trade market develops. Last year, we saw three first-round picks change hands in the days leading up to the draft, and I anticipate similar activity this time. The trade rumors I'm hearing most frequently involve the Phoenix Fuel Masters, who hold the fifth pick and are reportedly willing to move it for established veteran talent. This makes sense for a team that believes it's close to contention but needs one more piece rather than another young player. The challenge, of course, is finding a trade partner who values draft picks appropriately—some teams still underestimate the value of cost-controlled young talent in today's PBA.
When all is said and done, the 2024 PBA Draft represents both continuity and change for the league. We're still seeing the same excitement around top prospects that has always characterized this event, but the approaches teams take have become more sophisticated, more analytical, and more strategic than ever before. The integration of women's basketball officials into the men's league, while controversial, reflects the PBA's ongoing evolution as it seeks to grow the sport at all levels. From my perspective, this year's draft class has the potential to be truly special, with at least three future All-Stars likely to hear their names called. The team that navigates this process most effectively won't just improve their roster for next season—they might secure a cornerstone player for the next decade. As someone who's followed this league through countless drafts, I can confidently say that the 2024 edition has all the makings of a franchise-altering event that we'll look back on for years to come.
