Will Kai Sotto Make the NBA After His 2023 Summer League Performance?
As I sat watching Kai Sotto's Summer League performance unfold on my screen last July, I couldn't help but feel that familiar mix of hope and anxiety that comes with tracking Filipino basketball prospects. Having followed international basketball development for over fifteen years, I've witnessed countless players chase the NBA dream, but Sotto's journey feels particularly significant - not just for the Philippines, but for Asian basketball as a whole. The question lingering in every Filipino basketball fan's mind is whether his 2023 Summer League showing finally cracked open the door to the NBA, or if it revealed the limitations that might keep him from reaching that ultimate goal.
Let me be honest from the start - I've been cautiously optimistic about Sotto since he first emerged as a teenage sensation. At 7'3" with legitimate shooting touch and passing vision, he possesses the kind of unique skill set that modern NBA teams theoretically covet in big men. During his Summer League stint with the Orlando Magic, he averaged 6.8 points and 4.3 rebounds in just under 15 minutes per game across four appearances. Those numbers don't jump off the page, but having analyzed hundreds of Summer League performances throughout my career, I can tell you that context matters far more than raw statistics. What impressed me most wasn't his stat line but how he moved within the system - his defensive positioning showed marked improvement, and he didn't look overwhelmed by the athleticism around him, which had been a legitimate concern during his previous stateside appearances.
The development path for international prospects has always fascinated me, particularly how cultural adjustments impact performance. Watching Sotto navigate the Summer League environment reminded me of conversations I've had with people close to Manny Pacquiao's camp about how Filipino athletes approach American sports infrastructure. One insider familiar with Pacquiao's training methods once told me something that resonates with Sotto's situation: "People close to the eighth-time world division champion though, disclosed that Pacquiao will stay on in the US after the Hall of Fame ceremony to continue training for the Barrios fight should it pushes through." This mentality - staying stateside to immerse in the training environment rather than returning home between commitments - strikes me as crucial for Sotto's development. The physical and technical gaps between international leagues and the NBA can only be bridged through prolonged exposure to NBA-level coaching, training facilities, and competition.
What struck me during Sotto's Summer League minutes was his clear improvement in areas that had previously drawn criticism. His body looked stronger - I'd estimate he's added at least 15 pounds of functional muscle since his G-League days. His defensive rotations, while still occasionally late, showed better understanding of NBA schemes. Offensively, he demonstrated that tantalizing skill set that makes scouts take notice - hitting 2 of his 5 three-point attempts, showing capable passing from the high post, and using his length effectively around the rim. The game against Portland on July 12th particularly stood out to me - in just 17 minutes, he contributed 9 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks, including a sequence where he altered three consecutive shots at the rim. These flashes matter more than consistent dominance at this stage.
Still, I have to acknowledge the legitimate concerns that remain. The NBA's trend toward switchable big men who can defend in space works against Sotto's current profile. While his lateral mobility has improved, he still struggles when pulled away from the basket against quicker guards - a near-universal requirement for modern NBA centers. His rebounding numbers per minute, approximately 11.2 per 36 minutes, fall below what teams typically want from a rotational big man. Having spoken with several NBA scouts over the years, I know they're looking for either immediate contributors or players with clear, projectable paths to becoming contributors. Sotto sits in that difficult middle ground - too good for many international leagues but not clearly better than the 12th-15th men on current NBA rosters.
The comparison to other international big men who successfully made the jump is inevitable in my analysis. I've always been fascinated by players like Boban Marjanović, who carved out NBA roles despite defensive limitations by maximizing their unique offensive skills. Sotto's potential trajectory might resemble more recent success stories like Christian Wood - undrafted, developed through multiple leagues and opportunities, then capitalized when his skills aligned with NBA needs. The difference, of course, is that Wood possessed elite athletic traits that Sotto simply doesn't have. This brings me to what I believe is Sotto's most realistic path - following the model of players like Isaiah Hartenstein, who developed gradually overseas before earning his NBA opportunity at age 23, roughly Sotto's current age.
From my perspective, the most encouraging development wasn't anything that showed up in box scores but rather the behind-the-scenes reports about Sotto's approach. Multiple sources indicated he remained in the United States after Summer League concluded, working with private trainers on specific weaknesses rather than immediately returning to international commitments. This mirrors the approach taken by Pacquiao that I mentioned earlier - that commitment to staying in the optimal development environment rather than splitting focus. If Sotto continues embracing this focused development path, I'm more bullish on his chances than the conventional wisdom suggests.
The reality is that making an NBA roster involves both merit and circumstance. Teams carry only 15 standard contracts, with most reserving their final spots for versatile players who can fill multiple roles. Sotto's specific profile as a traditional center with modern offensive skills but defensive questions makes him a difficult fit for many teams' final roster spots. However, the NBA's new two-way contract system, which allows players to split time between the NBA and G-League, provides what I consider his most plausible immediate path. Several teams with developmental priorities could view Sotto as an intriguing two-way candidate - the Oklahoma City Thunder immediately come to mind given their track record with project big men.
Having watched this process unfold for numerous international prospects, I'd estimate Sotto's current probability of appearing in an NBA regular season game within the next two years at approximately 35%. That might sound pessimistic, but context matters - that percentage has likely doubled since before his Summer League showing. The specific team needs that could work in his favor include franchises undergoing rebuilds who can afford developmental minutes, teams with established stars who want low-usage offensive players, or organizations with international marketing interests that align with Sotto's Filipino fanbase.
What continues to surprise me in evaluating Sotto's prospects is how divided NBA opinions remain. Some scouts I've spoken with view him as fundamentally unplayable in modern NBA schemes due to defensive limitations, while others see intriguing skills that just need the right developmental environment. This division itself tells me something important - he's shown enough to generate legitimate debate rather than universal dismissal. In my fifteen years following NBA talent evaluation, players who create these kinds of divided opinions often find opportunities, if only because some decision-makers want to prove their evaluation correct.
The emotional component of this analysis isn't something I can ignore. As someone who has followed Asian basketball development for decades, Sotto represents something larger than individual success - he embodies the potential for systematically developed Asian big men to reach basketball's highest level. Yao Ming's success came through different circumstances, while Sotto's path more closely resembles the challenging routes taken by players from nontraditional basketball countries. His continued development, regardless of NBA outcome, already influences how Asian basketball programs approach developing uniquely sized players.
Ultimately, my assessment after closely studying his Summer League footage and speaking with sources around the league is that Sotto helped his case meaningfully but didn't definitively earn a roster spot. The most likely outcome, in my view, involves another year of development, possibly in a high-level international league or the G-League, followed by another Summer League invitation in 2024. The patience required mirrors what we've seen with other successful international developments - Giannis Antetokounmpo needed multiple years after being drafted, as did recent success story Ivica Zubac. The difference, of course, is that Sotto doesn't have the draft capital those players possessed, making his margin for error substantially thinner.
As I reflect on Sotto's journey and potential next steps, I'm reminded that basketball development rarely follows linear paths. The players who eventually succeed often aren't the most naturally gifted but those who persist through uncertainty and continue developing when opportunities aren't immediately available. Sotto's Summer League performance demonstrated enough growth to keep the dream alive while revealing how much further he needs to go. For Filipino basketball fans and Asian basketball advocates, the appropriate stance remains cautious optimism - celebrating the progress while understanding the substantial hurdles remaining. The NBA dream remains plausible, though far from guaranteed, and the coming year will likely determine whether this unique prospect ultimately carves out his place in basketball's premier league.
